It will be 2014 before the European equipment rental sector sees a significant return to growth with rental revenues expected to remain subdued next year, according to the European Rental Association (ERA).
The ERA, in its just-published 2012 report, has again downgraded its growth forecasts for the industry. In May it reduced its 2012 revenue growth estimate from 4.0% to 1.5% and has now cut that further to 0.1%.
The 3.5% forecast for 2013 made earlier this year has been cut to 0.8%, with significant growth only resuming in 2014, with a forecast 2.5% increase.
The ERA has made the cuts in light of the continued problems in the Eurozone and the wider economic slowdown in the region.
The latest forecasts are included in the ERA’s new The European Equipment Rental Industry 2012 Report, which is written by consultant IHS Global Insight. The report covers non-operated plant: that is, equipment rented without operators.
In addition to providing forecasts for the coming years the report provides detailed analysis of the industry’s performance in 2011, finding that overall growth was 4% and valuing the industry at €21.5 billion.
The figures for 2011 mask wide variations country by country, with Norway (+11.2%), Finland (+10.2%), Germany (+7.1%), France (+7.1%) and Sweden (+6.7%) performing well while others like Spain, Italy, Denmark and the UK still struggle to recover from previous falls.
Less mature rental markets like Poland and Russia are also growing strongly, finds the report. Poland’s rental sector grew by 30% in 2011 although growth has now slowed.
The report includes detailed analysis of 12 European countries including a preliminary analysis of the Russian market. Data includes market size information for the years 2009-2012 and information on fleet size, investment and penetration rates.
ERA said the report benefits from improved data from Eurostat, using the recent NACE rev. 2 classification system that allows for a break-down of data on rental activities.
In addition, to increase the comparability of market penetration rates within Europe and globally, ERA is now using official UN statistics on construction market size rather than its own country estimates.
The report is available to ERA members for €300 and to prospective and non-members for €900. E-mail the ERA for details: firstname.lastname@example.org