Output growth

Output growth is predicted to increase in 2019, largely due to Asia

Global construction output growth will increase in 2019 to 3.4%, up from 2018’s 3.2%, according to information supplied by GlobalData.

This increase will occur due to growth in construction activity in emerging markets, most notably in China where the authorities are stepping up investment in infrastructure to prevent a continued slowdown.

However, growth in China will drop back from 2021 onwards. This will contribute to a slight easing in construction growth in emerging markets.

Danny Richards, lead economist at GlobalData, said, “The expansion in advanced economies will be fairly sluggish in 2019, with growth in North America slowing to 1.2%, and in Western Europe there will be a deceleration to 2.3%.

“However, over the remainder of the forecast period, there will be scope for slightly faster growth in the advanced economies, with monetary policy remaining accommodative, which will contribute to overall global construction growth.”

The pace of construction growth will ease in South and South-East Asia in 2019 following the sharp upturn in 2018, but it will be the fastest growing region in 2019–2023, with average annual growth of 6.5%.

There will be sustained recoveries in construction output in the Middle East and Africa, as well as in Latin America. Weakness in Turkey will pull down the pace of regional expansion in Eastern Europe.

Construction activity growth slowed across Western Europe in 2018. Output will expand by 2.3% a year on average in 2019–2023, which is a marginal slowdown compared to the pace recorded in 2014–2018, of 2.4%.

The report touches on risks to the global market, highlighting the dangers of an escalation in the trade war between China and the US, the high level of debt in China and uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union.

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