Slowdown in cement demand
By Sarah Ann McCay18 September 2012
CW Group has adjusted its forecast for global cement volumes downwards in its second half 2012 benchmark Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR), with 2012 outlook now revised to 5.3% and 2013 outlook at 5.8%, or 3.991 billion tons.
The market research firm has reported growing regional divergence - with forecasts revised downwards for most of Europe and the Americas, while Southeast Asia continues to show robust growth.
The second half 2012 survey shows global cement consumption (excluding China) expanding at 3.7% in 2012 to reach 1.561 billion tons. The increase is a decline from the 4% consumption volume growth in 2011 when worldwide cement demand (excluding China) reached 1.494 billion tons.
According to CW Group, cement volumes in European markets have hit decline, with negative results in markets across Southern Europe and deterioration in Eastern Europe and the CIS. However, there are some positives, with growth expected to continue in Norway, Russia and some ex-Soviet states.
In the Americas, CW Group predicts robust results for Latin America, offset by weakness in Mexico and the Caribbean.
Forecasts were revised upwards by 4% for 2012 for Africa, with strong demand expected from frontier markets, such as Nigeria.
Asia, excluding China, remains strong with CW Group predicting a pick up in cement volumes in 2013 and 2014. Countries expected to show strong recovery include the Philippines and Indonesia.
CW Group lowered its outlook for China but continues to forecast growth in the near-to-medium term.
Overall, the GCVFR benchmark report highlights continued slow growth globally.