CE Barometer July 2014: Still on a high

February saw confidence in the sector hit its highest levels since the start of the global financial crisis, with the CE Climate, a broad measure of sentiment, reach a balance figure of +36.4%. The balance figure is the percentage of positive responses, minus the number of negative ones.

Although subsequent months have seen some wavering in that measure of confidence, it has still remained at a high level, and in July was measured at a balance of +22.2% - similar to May and June’s result

As in those two months, all the individual measures of confidence that go into the CE Climate remained high in July.

However, one noticeable change was in sentiment about the future. Whereas the first six months of this year has seen a balance of between +40% and +55% on the question of whether activity levels will be higher in a year’s time, in July this fell to +22.2%. That was still very firmly in positive territory of course, but a big step down from the first six months of 2014.

A balance of +25.9% of respondents said activity levels were higher in July 2014 than a year previously, a result that was similar to June’s balance of +21.3%. Similarly, a balance of +18.5% of respondents said activity levels were better in June than a month previously, compared to +16.3% in June.

As the ‘clock’ diagram illustrates the sentiment for a relative boom is very strong. However, it is important to interpret this correctly. The clock only indicates which way the market is heading, and how many people share that view – the length of the arrow is the strength of the sentiment. It does not indicate how big market growth will be.

Click here to read last month's CE Barometer results.