European construction recovery from 2014

By Helen Wright16 December 2013

A slow recovery in Europe’s construction output is forecast to begin in 2014, gaining further momentum in 2015 and 2016, according to research company Euroconstruct.

It said this year represented the lowest point for construction volumes, with total output across the 19 countries monitored by Euroconstruct forecast to fall 3%.

The strongest declines in 2013 are expected to be reported in Spain (-23%), Portugal (-16.5%) and Poland (-8.9%), while the largest increases are forecast for Norway (3.7%), Switzerland (2.8%) and Denmark (2.4%).

For 2014, construction output across the 19 Euroconstruct countries is expected to total 0.9%. The strongest declines are forecast for Spain (-6.7%), the Czech Republic (-4.2%) and Portugal (-3%), while the largest increases are forecast for Ireland (9.8%), Hungary (7.4%), Switzerland and Norway (both 2.6%).

Further ahead, total construction output is expected to increase again in 2015 by 1.8% and in 2016 by 2.2%, with output from the Euroconstruct countries in Western Europe expected to rise 1.7% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016.

Output from the Eastern European countries that Euroconstruct monitors is forecast to increase 3.3% in 2015 and 4.6% in 2016.

In terms of sectors, civil engineering is expected to see the strongest decrease in output in 2013 at 4%, followed my non-residential construction output, which is expected to drop 3.4% this year, and residential construction, where a 2.2% decrease is forecast.

For 2014, a 1.4% increase in residential output is forecast, together with a 1.2% increase in civil engineering, while non-residential construction output is expected to remain unchanged year-on-year.

For 2015, the residential sector is forecast to lead the recovery with expected output up 2.2%, followed by civil engineering with an expected increase of 1.6% and non-residential at 1.4%.

Finally, in 2016, both the residential and non-residential sectors are forecast to register 2.3% increases in output, while civil engineering output is expected to be up 1.7%.

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